Well, the question is if it is at all possible to predict the right time to start. I think not. Nobody could foresee 9/11 and the impact it had, and also the credit crunch came as a surprise to most people, and now it is anybodies guess when the recession will be fading out.
And when will the surplus of experienced pilots, who have been laid off over the last couple of years be fully absorbed into the industry or elsewhere?
No matter what the current situation is like, it has only limited bearing on how thinks will be in two years time and almost non on the more distant future.
I think anybodies guess is as good as any, and I do not believe that professional pilots or others in the industry have a better chance of predicting the world’s economical fluctuations and the influence on the industry than for instance economists (I’m one and haven’t got a clue).
All I would dare to say is that it will take some time (years?) for the economy to get back to ‘normal’, and that it may or may not coincide with when anybody finishes his training.
About getting rusty: How likely has it ever been, that you would get a job before your standard started to decay (BTW, do we have a ‘when did you train, and when did you get your first airline job’-statistic?).
The idea of taking the modular route and slow it down a bit might work, but ones you started on the ATPL exams, the clock is ticking and that is the first thing you do after the PPL and some hour building. After the first exam you are 'committed to land' both financially and time wise.
No matter what, I think you must anticipate that it could take a while (months or years) before you get that job, and plan accordingly to keep you current and afloat.
The Viking