PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
Old 16th Sep 2009, 17:32
  #3070 (permalink)  
Bruce Wayne
 
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I really don't know if future generations would be interested.. Come a few years from now we will enter another bubble based on overinflated values in XYZ market and new financial models that show a crash and risk is unlikely.

Go figure !

the predictions you yourself have mad are not down to channelling, or some divine message from above but consideration of historical basis (yes, I do read your posts!) likewise the involvement of people like penguin who as risk analysts analyse the risk !

Go figure !

Having been involved in debt recovery from aviation based assets I have seen the most heinous debts that investors have confronted in certain assets, based on biased information.

Take for example in 2005 a 747SP with an exec interior (yes that one). that an investor was in for a considerable sum, based on a financial projection and model, which was to all an intents false.

Looking at recovering some 2.5 million for an SP airframe with no engines a garbage interior and out of date avionics was never going to happen, it was worth not even a 10th of that figure.

The investor was burned in a big way on that having bought the aircraft complete and the engines sold off; I know who made big time on that, it wasn't the party that carried the financial liability.

That was based on false information and the risk being buried; The resultant factor is that someone ended up with an asset that was worth no where near the value it was projected at.

To intents and purposes this was appropriating funds against an asset with incorrect, moreover even fraudulent data.

The result of many transactions like this that went on leaves a lot of debt on books with no hope of ever reclaiming a significant portion of the debt back, which now results in finance against aviation based assets very lairy across the board and a lot of debt that can only be written off, not even down.

Right now, you have new aircraft out of the factory and finance companies wanting to see up to 30% in the aircraft before they will even consider finance.
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