For me it's based on reading BASSAs claims of 100% support then going downroute and finding that when you remove the intimidating militants from the scene a large proportion of the crew volunteer that they are unhappy with BASSAs conduct and have no intention of striking. Of course if you are a union hack you'd never hear that.
BASSA may have changed their constitution but they still require Tony Woodleys approval to ballot for a strike. Odds on that approval won't be forthcoming.