War In The Middle East
What are the chances of a war in the Middle East over the next 3 years?
"Inevitable" now seems to be the answer from many serious analysts over the world.
Iran is building the bomb. They have legitimate security reasons. Thousands of American troops on either flank. Several other countries, (none particularly friendly) in the region already have the bomb. For Iran it is a matter of national security.
Similarly Israel cannot let Iran have the bomb. Most there see it as a threat to their very existence. It must be stopped whatever the consequences.
America and Europe cannot change these facts. Their politicians will only dance around them, while dealing with more pressing local agendas.
Ultimately there will be a war and the many Arab states that have Iranian residents or Shiite populations will be sucked in. It is inevitable, however the timing is unknown. It will not be advertised and as history shows complacency will be the order of the day until it is upon us.
The direct effects of the war and the 200 - 300 dollar per barrel oil that will result will decimate the airline industry particularly in this "ideal hub location".
Thankfully for the airlines many pilots will simply flee for home. Along with the many others thise will cause the local economies to collapse overnight.
The Middle East is fraught will danger on many levels hence the salaries paid here. War is always around the corner. As is social upheaval, economic failure, monetry failure, legislative failure and good old bad driving.
The King of Saudi suggests war could be within a year. Keep a bag packed.