Perhaps we should go back and look at the set of assumptions that have created the need for a second airport in the first place:
In a rebuke to the Macquarie-controlled Sydney Airport's growth forecasts, the Transport Minister, Anthony Albanese, has challenged its ability to handle a more than doubling of passengers over the next 20 years.
To me, passenger numbers doubling in 20 years is pretty much more of the 'unending economic growth' mantra that economists have peddled out over the past 10 years, and still peddle out, even in the midst of the 'greatest recession since the great depression'.
Here's another scenario. Passenger numbers stay relatively flat, and then decrease in line with GDP as the economy slams back into high oil prices created by the lack of excess supply over demand. Anyone remember oil over $150 last year? Well we had a reprieve temporarily down to the $30 range with massive demand destruction, but interesting that even before a 'recovery' we already have oil over $70!
What do you think will happen to the price when we really see a recovery in the economy?
My bet is that passenger numbers will decrease by about 1-2% per year on average in the near term, and that will probably increase to around 3% in the medium term. We will go back to the 70's, when air travel was the domain of the wealthy and the business elite.
Second Airport. Who's going to pay for it. The NSW Govt? Federal Govt? Sure, just go and borrow another billion of debt to throw on the budget.
