Tim Clark said this to the Gulf News last week:
Emirates' fleet will expand from 126 passenger aircraft now to 196 planes by 2018
The complete article is here:
Gulfnews: Emirates chief is confident of staying profitable
So, an expected
net growth of 70 passenger aircraft in the next nine years.
Let's say 8 upgrades per aircraft, so that'll be 560 upgrades.
But there's close to 1200 F/Os at Emirates already.
So with Clarks forecast (optimistic?) expansion plan 640+ current EK F/Os could still be in the right seat in the year 2018.
Do the math(s).
Mandatory retirements on age? Sure, there'll be some.
Check the seniority list, around 30 pensioners leaving EK in the next nine years.
DECs? Oh yes, there'll be Direct Entry Captains. A lot more than 30.
Mass resignations? Maybe... it's the only hope for EKs F/Os.
Earlier this week on another thread a few people suggested 5-7 years to upgrade at EK for new joiners. Maybe they can back that forecast up with some objective data, I'd like to see it. I predict sometime between 12 years and never for upgrade for new joiners at EK.