Dick
I believe you when you say the quote for $100K from Collins was real.... then..... but in a year or so a Transponder change and either interfacing with existing GPS data or even a suitable GPS module should not cost that much.
You know all about the economies of scale principal, and I think CASA should too, so why is the $20M figure for 182 a/c to be believed.
I realise the Boeing / Airbus folk may end up at that price but most have it now anyway.
And regardless of your ability to pay $100K or $20K......I think its a bit much to expect you to be forking out that much($100K) anyway.
Time will tell but I really doubt it will cost the industry $20M