CASA premature ADS-B mandate will result in even more pilots losing jobs
Thread Starter
CASA premature ADS-B mandate will result in even more pilots losing jobs
All corporate jet aircraft operating above FL290 in Australia will be required to have ADS-B by 2013 – seven years before the requirement is mandated in the USA. A number of industry people I have spoken to predict that up to 50% of our corporate fleet will be sold back to the USA, rather than spending the $20 million (estimated by CASA) to fit ADS-B. They state that this type of money is simply not available.
Remember, ADS-B is not required below FL290, so no improvement will be made in the so-called “necessary” problem area of the western minefields.
With up to 50% of the fleet being sold back to the USA, many professional pilots will lose their jobs. Some will say they deserve this because these pilots have done absolutely nothing in making it clear to CASA that Australia can’t possibly lead the world in expensive requirements when there is a major recession taking place.
Fortunately it won’t affect me at all. I can easily afford the ADS-B, and I presume the Packers can too.
I would love to know what genuine measurable safety issue is being addressed. I recently flew the CJ3 out to Birdsville, and above FL290 there is basically no one there. This must be so because Airservices regularly went to TIBA without any real objection from CASA. Of course Airservices have announced that they are going to replace the radars as required, so the ADS-B requirement cannot be designed to address the J-curve.
Don’t get me wrong. I believe ADS-B is fantastic. However I find it interesting that Australia is planning to lead other major aviation countries, such as the USA, with these mandatory requirements.
It can only be happening because the people at CASA making the decisions have no understanding of commercial reality at all. The cargo cult attitude that existed in the 60s is back, firm and strong.
It appears that Qantas agreed with this early mandate because they thought it would only affect the business aviation community and wouldn’t cost Qantas a cent – i.e. that they would have got rid of their 767s by then.
Now with the downturn, there is a chance that Qantas will still have the 767s and it will cost an absolute fortune to fit ADS-B – resulting in even fewer people being employed as their company profitability is affected even more.
Remember, ADS-B is not required below FL290, so no improvement will be made in the so-called “necessary” problem area of the western minefields.
With up to 50% of the fleet being sold back to the USA, many professional pilots will lose their jobs. Some will say they deserve this because these pilots have done absolutely nothing in making it clear to CASA that Australia can’t possibly lead the world in expensive requirements when there is a major recession taking place.
Fortunately it won’t affect me at all. I can easily afford the ADS-B, and I presume the Packers can too.
I would love to know what genuine measurable safety issue is being addressed. I recently flew the CJ3 out to Birdsville, and above FL290 there is basically no one there. This must be so because Airservices regularly went to TIBA without any real objection from CASA. Of course Airservices have announced that they are going to replace the radars as required, so the ADS-B requirement cannot be designed to address the J-curve.
Don’t get me wrong. I believe ADS-B is fantastic. However I find it interesting that Australia is planning to lead other major aviation countries, such as the USA, with these mandatory requirements.
It can only be happening because the people at CASA making the decisions have no understanding of commercial reality at all. The cargo cult attitude that existed in the 60s is back, firm and strong.
It appears that Qantas agreed with this early mandate because they thought it would only affect the business aviation community and wouldn’t cost Qantas a cent – i.e. that they would have got rid of their 767s by then.
Now with the downturn, there is a chance that Qantas will still have the 767s and it will cost an absolute fortune to fit ADS-B – resulting in even fewer people being employed as their company profitability is affected even more.
Thread Starter
No , not per aircraft! The CASA RIS claims the cost will be $19.9m for the 182 aircraft effected however industry estimates are twice this. For example the CASA figures average out at $60k per aircraft however the Collins estimate for my CJ is over $100k US and my aircraft is only 3 years old!
And the industry will have to pay the cost of the radar replacement decision so it is a double cost whammy.
Ha HA But they deserve it as just about everything I did to urge caution was undermined by cowards on this site!
Less and less jobs for the Professionals
And the industry will have to pay the cost of the radar replacement decision so it is a double cost whammy.
Ha HA But they deserve it as just about everything I did to urge caution was undermined by cowards on this site!
Less and less jobs for the Professionals
Your sensationalist thread title doesn't fool anybody anymore Mr Smith. The mandatory fitment of ADS-B in 3~4 years for all aircraft operating above FL290 is not going to break the back of any currently viable corporate jet operation in Australia. Of course aircraft with no ADS-B may be sold overseas and any imported would either have to be fitted with ADS-B or provision made for it to be fitted with the equipment, but if that in itself becomes the financial show stopper then I would argue that the operation itself is not viable. As for Qantas and their 767s the fitment of ADS-B would one of only many many maintenance issues facing those aircraft as by 2013 some of them will be 25 years old. You are drawing an idiotically long bow between regulations regarding mandatory equipment and their cost and pilot employment.
Thread Starter
Slice, of course you are correct. Unique costs of $20 to $40 million that are added to our industry compared to our global competitor countries could never effect jobs here.
Everyone relax DS is wrong again- what would he know about the costs of successfully running a business compared to people like Slice.
Everyone relax DS is wrong again- what would he know about the costs of successfully running a business compared to people like Slice.
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Dick,
A random thought based on nothing more than my own juices;
Could it be that this may spur a period of fleet renewal or an opportunity for Australian companies to become leaders in ADS-B globally? At least it's not a weird unique system that won't ever be used anywhere else.
As many corporate aircraft go deeper into their inspection/overhaul cycles, they may become candidates for replacement, rather than upgrade. They may also attract a higher price on the overseas market than when they become clapped out bolt buckets. I doubt this will change the recession forced sales much anyway.
Hardly seems worthwhile for a lazy 100k+ but you never know.
BTW - my guess is that Qantas is going to pounce on any cancelled 787 orders to punt the 767's as quickly as possible ala 2001/2......
A random thought based on nothing more than my own juices;
Could it be that this may spur a period of fleet renewal or an opportunity for Australian companies to become leaders in ADS-B globally? At least it's not a weird unique system that won't ever be used anywhere else.
As many corporate aircraft go deeper into their inspection/overhaul cycles, they may become candidates for replacement, rather than upgrade. They may also attract a higher price on the overseas market than when they become clapped out bolt buckets. I doubt this will change the recession forced sales much anyway.
Hardly seems worthwhile for a lazy 100k+ but you never know.
BTW - my guess is that Qantas is going to pounce on any cancelled 787 orders to punt the 767's as quickly as possible ala 2001/2......
Thread Starter
Freewheel , a great idea. We have an industry going into severe recession so we add to overheads so that the money spent will employ more people and take us out of recession!
I love it.
Do you work in the PM's Department?
I love it.
Do you work in the PM's Department?
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Dick
I believe you when you say the quote for $100K from Collins was real.... then..... but in a year or so a Transponder change and either interfacing with existing GPS data or even a suitable GPS module should not cost that much.
You know all about the economies of scale principal, and I think CASA should too, so why is the $20M figure for 182 a/c to be believed.
I realise the Boeing / Airbus folk may end up at that price but most have it now anyway.
And regardless of your ability to pay $100K or $20K......I think its a bit much to expect you to be forking out that much($100K) anyway.
Time will tell but I really doubt it will cost the industry $20M
I believe you when you say the quote for $100K from Collins was real.... then..... but in a year or so a Transponder change and either interfacing with existing GPS data or even a suitable GPS module should not cost that much.
You know all about the economies of scale principal, and I think CASA should too, so why is the $20M figure for 182 a/c to be believed.
I realise the Boeing / Airbus folk may end up at that price but most have it now anyway.
And regardless of your ability to pay $100K or $20K......I think its a bit much to expect you to be forking out that much($100K) anyway.
Time will tell but I really doubt it will cost the industry $20M
Thread Starter
Seriously though, there is going to be more and more of you blokes out of work with the terrible trauma that involves if you don't wake up to reality.
Already pilots who attacked me on this site a number of years ago are asking if I have any jobs available.
The worst is not over yet in my view. Wake up to yourselves!
Already pilots who attacked me on this site a number of years ago are asking if I have any jobs available.
The worst is not over yet in my view. Wake up to yourselves!
One popular airline aircraft recently introduced into Australia is going to need modifications costing approx 100k USD per aircraft to get ADS-B to work.
the costs are very real....
the costs are very real....
Thread Starter
And if it is such a good idea why has the US set a date of 2020?
Could it be something to do with the very viability of an important industry? I think so.
And what actual existing safety issue is being adressed for the $20 million?
Could it be something to do with the very viability of an important industry? I think so.
And what actual existing safety issue is being adressed for the $20 million?
No Mr Smith, in the lower 48 states US radar coverage above FL290 is virtually total. That is why ADS-B there is not going to be mandatory until 2020. You also fail to mention that Europe and most of SE Asia will have the same requirement by 2013.This is a compliance cost that all operators above FL290 will have to bear, whether they are Australian or not. You also fail to consider to the huge cost savings available from ADS-B coverage (availability of optimal FL, direct tracking etc.) due to the vast reduction in separation standards just as RVSM did vertically. It is you that needs to wake up to yourself!
Pilots that are unemployed are certainly not going to be bemoaning the mandatory fitment of ADS-B as the cause of their woes!
Whatever business you operate or have operated Mr Smith, you certainly do not display much acumen for the aviation business in your various rants against CASA, ASA, the RAAF, the ABC etc. etc. etc.
Pilots that are unemployed are certainly not going to be bemoaning the mandatory fitment of ADS-B as the cause of their woes!
Whatever business you operate or have operated Mr Smith, you certainly do not display much acumen for the aviation business in your various rants against CASA, ASA, the RAAF, the ABC etc. etc. etc.
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Freewheel , a great idea. We have an industry going into severe recession so we add to overheads so that the money spent will employ more people and take us out of recession!
I love it.
Do you work in the PM's Department?
I love it.
Do you work in the PM's Department?
During a conversation about Indigenous policy recently, somebody told me I should run for PM. I laughed and suggested......you.
I wouldn't have thought a man of such entrepeneurial vigour as yourself would have been so quick to jump on the idea of somebody seeing this as an opportunity.
There may be the odd organisation for whom the cost of ADS-B might be the straw on the camel's back, but if so they'd likely be going down the gurgler anyway. How much for a hot section overhaul on your CJ3?
As you point out, ADS-B is fantastic, but as slice rather indelicately mentioned, there should be a substantially greater (relative) gain for Australia than there will be in the US.
Addendum;
There's still 4 years to go, so by then we'll either have begun to recover and corporate operators will know how they're travelling, or we'll all have been runed.
The danger in ADS-B implementation is not the equipment, the effect or the cost, but the principle of using it to provide something that could have been provided another way for years.
If the principle was to apply we'd have to have a TCAS to fly a circuit and an ab initio student would need to operate one of them before going anywhere alone, along with all the other burdens.
Finally, the US does get it wrong from time to time, after all where was ADS-B created all those years ago?
Last edited by Freewheel; 14th May 2009 at 06:29.
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Dick, It is a predictable resopnse, those who don't own aircraft want those who do to spend money on those aircraft so that the non owners can either fly them about or so the non owner public servants in airconditioned control centers can relax and put the onus for separation back on the Aircraft Owners.
joker 10 - are you on the same planet!?! Above FL290 the onus for separation has and will always be on the ATC center. And believe me anything flying at or above FL290 is air conditioned (Mil fast jets possibly excepted). Read carefully what this debate is actually about!
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Joker
From one owner to another
Owen is a multiple owner, although that changes at times....just like all of us including you, so what the heck has that to do with this discussion.
I think I am going to take a leaf out of Keg's book (if you do not mind Keg) and suggest you have become an ADSB TROLL............. Of course Keg would say dont't feed them
which is what I just did .
I see you are paranoid about it creeping below FL290 hey....big brother charging you for not receiving a service in class G
Dehav driver....... I believe the costs for the Boeing and Airbus guys could well be 100K, however for the masses of GA they could well be much lower in a short time, including Dick's CJ3. I think Collins just charge what they like. But pressure will come with volume. Ask joker about the economies of scale. He knows only too well that if one of the common products he markets were only built in batches of 100-1000 the costs would be more than 5 times what we the consumer pays.
Again I share Dicks concern about 100K fitting for GA jets...... but volume will be the only thing that helps that. How does one see more volume?
From one owner to another
Owen is a multiple owner, although that changes at times....just like all of us including you, so what the heck has that to do with this discussion.I think I am going to take a leaf out of Keg's book (if you do not mind Keg) and suggest you have become an ADSB TROLL............. Of course Keg would say dont't feed them
which is what I just did .I see you are paranoid about it creeping below FL290 hey....big brother charging you for not receiving a service in class G
Dehav driver....... I believe the costs for the Boeing and Airbus guys could well be 100K, however for the masses of GA they could well be much lower in a short time, including Dick's CJ3. I think Collins just charge what they like. But pressure will come with volume. Ask joker about the economies of scale. He knows only too well that if one of the common products he markets were only built in batches of 100-1000 the costs would be more than 5 times what we the consumer pays.
Again I share Dicks concern about 100K fitting for GA jets...... but volume will be the only thing that helps that. How does one see more volume?
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Can someone remind what this thread is actually about? I've just read it twice and by the time I get to the end I've lost the plot again.
DNC
PS Aircon in the centres is definitely to support the equipment. (Alright I'll admit that's not the only reason but it's the mandatory one) There are contingency plans to mitigate against failure and none points to cooling the fat b@stard in front of the screens. Normal ops, air is pumped into the consoles at 16⁰C to keep the computers cool. Consoles don't work above 43⁰C and they reach that about 20 minutes after the aircon fails if alternate cooling not available (meaning removing cowls and bringing in fans).
DNC
PS Aircon in the centres is definitely to support the equipment. (Alright I'll admit that's not the only reason but it's the mandatory one) There are contingency plans to mitigate against failure and none points to cooling the fat b@stard in front of the screens. Normal ops, air is pumped into the consoles at 16⁰C to keep the computers cool. Consoles don't work above 43⁰C and they reach that about 20 minutes after the aircon fails if alternate cooling not available (meaning removing cowls and bringing in fans).