*sigh*
Let's get a couple of things straight. £56k for a mod course sounds more than reasonable. It sounds like you have done your homework and I wouldn't be suprised to be talking to you in five years time to find you have change from that if you're careful. I have no issue at all with that.
However each method of training has it's own cross to bear. For integrated, it's the 15 year old kid who thinks APP first officer at Oxford is the ONLY [and, by the way, BEST] way of getting the licence and is a guarantee of a job straight away at BA. For Modular, it's people who think you can complete in less than a year for £20k whilst keeping your job and-by-the-way-integrated-costs-a-kazillion-pounds.
My issue with your post is that it's not 400% though, is it. The figures are just plain wrong and [deliberately?] misleading.
If we look at your figures you got as far as £100k course costs (with mythical interest) plus your £38k lost salary, plus, apparently, £62k of living costs for 15 months to get to your stated £200k target - which is actually significantly nearer 350% if you only wanted a round figure.
So, no, i'm not actually trying to be overly picky, just pointing out that your figures are incorrect. This doesn't even consider that if you have the cash to do it, debt free...as I did, as you say you do...then an integrated course costs only £10k more than you have budgeted. But never let the facts get in the way of a good yarn, eh.?
The problem is you are assuming all integrated students borrow until their ears bleed, whereas all modular students pay from cash. Which isn't true. For example (and I would NEVER seek to recommend this), with your cash budget, you could go integrated debt free also....
You mention how many F/Os will earn £40+k first year? well, actually most at Ryanair, anyone at BA, anyone going to NJE (admittedly through their cadet scheme)....quite a lot of people actually.
You say it's a silly argument to say you lose seniority and the contingent pay...but it isn't. You just clearly haven't thought about this. The aviaition world is back ended...so you earn more the longer you've served. If you are 30 (say) now, and take 5 years to get to first job, then you've got 30 years flying ahead of you. if we assume (from PPJN) it takes 20 years seniority to get to the top pay point [lets assume £100k pa], then you've got 10 years on that salary. If you take 1.5 years to train, you've got 33.5 years useful career left .... 13.5 years on top pay point. That's £350k. How does your £44k a year look now? You're well over £200k down...Bargain.
I don't mean to be patronising, really I don't. And generally, I think most people who know me would say I'm a nice guy, but you've believed the hype of modular just as badly as the 16 year old who thinks OAA is a guaranteed place in BA. As with all such things, it's a case of understanding the FULL picture...not just the rosy picture you've decided to paint yourself of your own choice, that needs to be considered.
And STOP bandying about your bloody salary like the fact you earn £38k means anything or adds weight to your decision....it doesn't - I net a hell of a lot more than you earn gross - but it doesn't lend any more weight to the argument...