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Old 25th Feb 2009, 14:21
  #153 (permalink)  
TopBunk
 
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OK, some facts:

1. The weather at the time over that part of NW Europe was benign under high pressure with light SW'erly winds

2. The temperature at the time of the crash was +5deg C, the clouds were stratiform

=> windshear is extremely unlikely in these conditions
=> engine icing is possible in these conditions (although a few hours earlier my 747-400 auto eng antice system was not activated when flying into LHR in the same basic air mass). The cloud tops were relatively low at below 5000ft (my judgement), and as such exposure to engine icing conditions would have been quite limited in duration and in no way severe with the heating of the air due to the airspeed.

3. The cloudbase of 600-700ft and visibility of 3+km should cause no professional pilot any cause for the slightest concern.

4. B737's can not dump fuel

5. Jet A1 fuel is quite hard to ignite, and much harder than petrol etc

=> lack of a fire in no way indicates no fuel on board.

6. Eye witnesses are notoriously unreliable and are best ignored.

Nonetheless, the aircraft crashed short of the runway. The facts as determined by the accident investigation and the analysis of the black box flight recorders and cockpit voice recorder will give initial indications within the next few days.
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