One thing I haven't seen mentioned by those who fear the end of the world if minimum hours drop below 45 is that there are already thousands of pilots (including me) flying around the UK on microlight licences. These only require 25 hours and have the same sort of self-certifying medical arrangements as are proposed for the NPPL.
While there are of course microlight accidents, these are not at all out of proportion to the rest of the GA world. Radio navigation and instrument training are not part of the microlight syllabus because the aircraft are not equipped with the relevant instruments. This seems not to have led to widespread disasters, plagues of locusts or the end of civilisation as we know it.
If the NPPL is a charter for filling the skies with second-rate pilots who should be confined to their invalid carriages on the ground, then presumably microlighting (and gliding?) should be banned forthwith, since the hours minima are less again.
I think that the current JAR requirements impose a burden of cost and bureaucracy which is disproportionate to the needs of the recreational pilot and go beyond what is required to ensure safety. The current system helps to keep people out of flying, which some, even within the GA world, seem to regard as an excellent thing. If you agree with that view, the NPPL is a threat. If you hope that there is still a future for recreational flying in the UK then I think it's to be welcomed.
Alasdair