Got to agree with WWW and JB007, not for the first time. Next winter could well be a nightmare.
I work on the financial side of airlines a lot of the time, and the model is this - this summer, most of the carriers will be hoping, as they always do, for decent yields and loads, decent enough to drag them through the winter. This is how it has always worked.
This summer, we are going to see a drop in consumer confidence Europe wide - many people are worried about their jobs, the value of their houses and many other things connected with these two things. Many have over-leveraged themselves. The party for many is well and truly over.
If the airlines can't build up the war chest this summer, and I fear that it is going to be tougher than for a long time for them so to do, the winter is going to be VERY nasty. On top of that, many have already been hit with the credit card companies getting tougher on settlements... and how many have spent cash hedging fuel at $110/barrel? All absorbs cash....
Tin hats on, folks...
TA