Just to spin the argument around.
I'm not an ATPL holder, and have no intention of becoming one, whatever the economic conditions (I'm a PPL, I know my limits!) but I have spent many years working at the higher levels of management in the airline game.
The ATPL training market has many of the features of the housing market. People have been encouraged to "follow their dreams" and get that licence/buy that house. Not to worry that you can't really afford it - your salary will rise/your house price will rise.
Until it doesn't, one day.
What has been driving house prices is NOT shortage of supply.
What has been driving training costs is NOT a shortage of recently qualified pilots.
What is driving the whole thing was cheap money - too much money in the system causes rampant inflation. Turning the money off - as has now happened - has shown clearly just how much people were relying on cheap money to keep the lights on. The market works, friends.
We are paying the price now of seeing house prices fall since it is sooo hard to get a mortgage, and almost impossible to get one that covers more than about 75% of the house price. I would bet that we are going to see ATPL training costs start to fall soon, on the same logic - perhaps not far, but fall they will.
Over the next few years, the shortage of capital is going to stuff a few more airlines. Whether it stuffs as many as WWW mentioned - jury's out. I hate to say it, but I wouldn't bet against him. Whilst capital is expensive, and passengers are nervous about spending money, this is going to hurt....
The demand for qualified pilots is going to fall, and the number of qualified candidates looking for work will rise. For new graduates, it is going to get VERY hard - I'm already seeing a massive rise in CVs from new pilots at the organisations I work with.
This is going to have two effects - firstly, there will be downward pressure on salaries. Sorry folks. Secondly, when the downturn ends - and it will - the pilot shortage will be seen again. If capital is still hard to come by, and the banks are more nervous about lending lots of money to young applicants, then either these folks will have to forget it, raise the money some other way, or - wait for this - the airlines will have to start shelling out for training again. Why don't airlines now pay for training if they can help it? Simple - there have been enough people out there who want the jobs, who have had easy lending bankers, and access to training companies who kept telling them that the only way is up.
Right now, training for an ATPL looks like about as good an idea as buying a house on a 100% mortgage. Do it if you can afford to do it without saddling yourself with so much debt that you won't be able to live/eat/payback from your fallback career. If you are looking to do this with debt that you absolutely, definitely must become an airline pilot to pay off - you need your head examined, frankly. You may get lucky - you may get that first job, many do even now - but if you want to play in this casino, that's up to you. Please don't cause the banks - and the customers of banks - even more angst by thinking "well, I'll go bankrupt". The banks have had their lesson in the moral imperative, and I would bet that they will be spreading that love soon to all of us....
TA