PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
Old 22nd Dec 2008, 10:12
  #1469 (permalink)  
Sciolistes
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
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I suspect that this government will attempt to artificially prevent a serious recession by fiddling with interest rates and the reserve ratio. I think there is a good possibility that the bottom of the downturn is not that far away. If this is the case then I think we'll be hit by a second wave that will much worse than predicted in another couple of years hence.

I also think that the banks can see the second wave coming hence the reluctance to pass interest rates on or ensure that people can pay back at least 7%, they sense that a recovery will be stimulated.

We really must take the pain now - recessions are necessary economic tools for long term stability, but they don't sit well with UK style populist democratic politics.

What I think this means is if you train now you are taking a risk that you will have to service a large debt with no flying job during the recession. If you don't train now and the recession is not as deep due to artificial tinkering (as mentioned above) then you run the risk of getting caught by the second wave and never make to the flight deck. There is no way to quantify the risk and the latter scenario is vague at best. Difficult times.

If you do train now, it maybe with an eye to working abroad to help mitigate the risk. Learn another European language (my gut feeling is that Euro land will be much more stable than the UK), perhaps do your research and use a school that has links or approvals with foreign airlines and/or authorities.
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