Firstly, good idea to start a new thread...the other was getting a bit stagnant, there's only so many times you can say "Vote No/Yes" !
I agree with nearly all your predictions, although I think that the pension vote will be more like 55/45, no idea which way its going to swing.
Also, I think if we get a payrise of 1.5% ( a flat 1.5%, not RPI + 1.5%), then we'll be doing "well", particularly as several members of management have mooted a pay freeze and the Union aren't exactly refuting this.
I'd like to know timescales involved if it turns into a "NO" vote...