In the last recession the Government/BoE were spinning about green shoots of recovery way before anyone else could see them. I would remind people that those that now predict a short recession were the same ones that 6 months ago said no recession, 12 months ago said it was a slowing of growth and 18 months ago saw no looming problem whatsoever..
The recession will be of similar proportion as the period of falling house prices and lag it but be similar in duration. Houses have fallen for 13 months, at the fastest rate since 1932 and show no signs of stopping falling. If that is an accurate proxy for recession then expect it to be sharp, deep and long.
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