I'm not sure how you can say that with any confidence YCOY given that the current downturn is without precedent. Surely if passenger numbers (particularly business passengers) decline considerably then cutbacks are inevitable, including reductions in, or delays to aircraft deliveries. Given that airlines were proclaiming a 'pilot shortage' only 5 months ago, I believe that long-term projections by anyone in the current economic situation are naive at best. I don't think there's an airline CEO out there (not even Alan Joyce) who could honestly say where pilot recruitment will be in a year or two.
"Place your bets now ladies and gentlemen, $140,000 on black or red....."