Browntailwhale,
I have a few comments about your post...lets assume DHL cancels their agreement in FIVE years as you state and Polar aircraft go with:
1) I would guess DHL would forfeit all the millions of dollars they have paid for Polar and the block space agreement in the first place. How much is that total? A few hundred million I think. (Although it wouldn't be the first time DHL has walked away from a major investment - ABX/ASTAR - US flight operations)
2) What about the 51% of Polar Air Cargo that AAWH owns. Would UPS have to buy that too? I would think at 51% AAWH has the ultimate decision to sell out the certificate and/or aircraft or permit these to be used by UPS with or without crew.
3) I would speculate a complete sale of Polar Air Cargo would result in the landing rights going away IF the buyer was UPS (or lets say FEDEX) since they already have an abundance of rights already (monopoly/duopoly). One could probably argue that UPS wouldn't want them anyway....maybe just the lift of the 6 -400's.
4) If UPS or anyone else really wants 747's, they can just buy them from Atlas Air Cargo or through Titan the dry leasing company. Remember, Atlas Air Cargo has NO SCOPE, no protection. Titan is a shell company. And when I say 747's I mean the -800's too. It's all on the table and I'm sure ANYTHING can be bought for a price. So why screw around with the Polar workforce and their scope? Walk to the next cubicle and get from Atlas.
At the end of the day without a very tight scope clause and other protections this merged pilot group (Polar and Atlas) is in danger. At the moment, the Atlas pilots are working under a weak first union contract (ALPA) that was amenable a long time ago. The Atlas pilots are long overdue for a better contract (not just an hourly pay raise) and much better working conditions.
Scope MUST be at the top of the list.
Like it our not, it will be a Teamsters led negotiated contract for a combined Polar/Atlas workforce. They better get it right.