There is no use comparing loads from October 2007 with October 2008 as business travel numbers would be relatively similar and families who had booked holidays will have done so well before the sh*t really started to hit the fan.
The big test will come during the approaching Xmas holidays and next years Easter and Summer breaks. Airlines traditionally charge 'Peak' fares during these periods to offset the losses or poor profits during the Off Peak months. However with families spending their holidays at home to save the pennies, airlines will have to charge off peak rates all year round to fill the seats. This is an impossible situation for the airlines and their tight ships!
And, don't forget about the decreasing value of the pound. I live in DXB and the exchange rate has fallen from 7.2 to 5.6 dirhams to the pound. Thats huge, and its a situation echoed around the world. Expect to see more families holidaying at home or in Europe.
Its going to be a disaster, and wannabes need to know that so they don't end up 'flipping burgers at Mcdonalds.' Will it be worse than 1990? Of course it will, as there are many more airlines to go bust or need to scale down.
Please don't get nieve folks. Wait until February when the airlines are reeling from their Xmas losses and battening down the hatches to prepare for their 'Off Peak' months.
Another few cents from DB
