Frogman1484 said:
Buffet says " When there is fear in the market, Buy. When there is greed, Sell!
Thats why he sold Pertochina at $21 and bought Goldman when he did....timing!!!
While I agree with much of what you have said, it would be more helpful if commentaries such as yours contained factual information rather than pure hype.
The facts are that Buffet sold the Petro China stake over an 11 week period (12/07/07 to 27/09/07) at prices between HKD11.26 and HKD13.89, not even close to the HKD21.00 you state. The share price went to its all time high (HKD20.25)after the announcement that he had disposed of his entire holding. Market commentators at the time used the premise that there was now no Berkshire/Buffet overhang, for PetroChina's sudden price spike.
When asked a month or so later when the price was close to its all-time high of HKD20.25 as to why he had sold, Buffet stated "it was all about the price and nothing to do with PetroChina's business dealings in Sudan"
Buffet is a spectacularly successful investor, but he's still not a God (last I checked at least). Time has again proven him right with his PetroChina disposal, given the current price of HKD8.48 is something like 37% lower than his highest disposal price.
However, he clearly could not perceive the price going to HKD20.25, otherwise he would not have sold everything when he did. Even geniuses like Buffet can't accurately predict the highs and lows. That is simply impossible.
It's just another demonstration of the manic characteristics of Mr. Market and our susceptability to his manic depressive state, as we are seeing now.
My own opinion is that the market is beginning to look very attractive from a valuation perspective and I will be steadily adding to my holdings over time, but with a long investment horizon. That doesn't mean they won't fall more over time, they possibly will. However, I can't be sure of that.
Based on current sentiment, I also fully expect to see more downside with extreme volatility a feature for some time to come. However, it would not be the first time that sentiment has been radically changed overnight by some unexpected positive development. The truth is, none of us will ever know and we can only invest on the long term fundamentals presented to us at the point in time you make your investment.
As for property,well it's definitely got some falling to do. HSBC have reduced valuations on many of the properties in my area by 15% this past 3 weeks alone. This is backed up by the Centadata info. Prices are only just starting to fall.
In the financial crises we face today, ultimately ALL asset classes will fall and cash will be whittled away by inflation if left in the bank. I wouldn't be running out and buying property any time soon, unless you are prepared to see it fall at least another 15% to 20% in value. One only has to look at the way property followed the stock market down some 6 to 12 months later in all previous financial crises in Hong Kong, to see where it is headed now.
Even gold has not retraced its rise to over USD1,000 and that's been in unbeliavably volatile and panicked times.
It will all get better one day, it's just going to take some time.
