Property, time to Sell?
Thread Starter
Joined: Apr 2008
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From: Earth
Property, time to Sell?
Anyone think that the flat prices will continue to appreciate in the next 2-3 yrs? Stocks are plummeting, but as a HK property investor, should I sell sell sell?
Are we in for a beating, like our stocks?
Or not...
Thankfully the company gave us a big housing increase last year, which will be the last for ever.
I would hate to be on the bottom of the CX seniority, without housing allowance, esp with all those local basings to replace NY and MAN base. Go think.
Are we in for a beating, like our stocks?
Or not...
Thankfully the company gave us a big housing increase last year, which will be the last for ever.
I would hate to be on the bottom of the CX seniority, without housing allowance, esp with all those local basings to replace NY and MAN base. Go think.
Joined: Jul 2005
Posts: 1,117
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From: Hong Kong
If you have a small flat you will be ok. If you have taken a big bite at the apple...your too late to sell your price is going down! Prices have already been going down for a few months now.
Interest rates will be going up in the near future too so. If the fed did not cut rates the other day , you know that they are at the bottom.
Interest rates will be going up in the near future too so. If the fed did not cut rates the other day , you know that they are at the bottom.
Joined: Mar 2001
Posts: 677
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From: York International
Too late
Hey Trev, you are too late, the time to sell was before the HSI plummeted down through 20000, its on its way to below 10000. HK property too is due for one of its 50% corrections.
This is the big one, maybe a depression. In order to save the airline we will see jets parked up and pilots furloughed within a few months. Remember you read it here first.
Good luck!
This is the big one, maybe a depression. In order to save the airline we will see jets parked up and pilots furloughed within a few months. Remember you read it here first.
Good luck!
Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 673
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From: Out of the pollution.
Depends on the property. Some is still stable or even increasing. There is only so much available on the island. Just had a unit in my building sell for about 500,000 K more than one 4 months ago, but its a sought after location in the midlevels. All those massive MTR projects and places like Tung Chung will take a big hit.
Layoffs? No way.. still understaffed , and isn't CX gonna fire the FRA guys who don't play ball?
Layoffs? No way.. still understaffed , and isn't CX gonna fire the FRA guys who don't play ball?
Joined: May 2002
Posts: 2,609
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From: Asia
Depression? No way. Not even close.
Most people who know my style of writing here would know that I have been very bearish on the world economy since about July last year and that hasn’t changed, including the HK property market. But to state we may be heading towards a depression is in my opinion way off the mark. Let me very briefly explain what happened to the US and world economy between 1929 and 1933 and why I believe we aren’t heading towards a depression.
Firstly during the Depression in the US unemployment reach about 25%. Average wages for those still working fell 42% and US economic output fell from US$103 to US$55 Billion per year. World trade plummeted 65%. GDP in the US from 1929 to 1933 was -8.6%, -6.4%, -13.0% & -1.3% respectively. And finally it is now widely accepted that the US Federal Reserve aggravated the depression by cutting the monetary supply by about 30% where as today they are increasing it.
So what do I think will happen? Well as far as I can see the US has been pretty close to if not already in a recession and it will probably be in it for at least four more quarters. The rest of the world isn’t immune to the woes of the US. Europe is heading for a recession and I can see Asia, Australia and New Zealand doing the same. What will govern who comes out of the recession first is who went into one earlier and where interest rates stand in each country. Based on this I can see the US and Asia will probably lead a recovery because of a low interest rate environment in these economies right now and Europe, Australia and New Zealand lagging substantially behind because there central banks have been tightening monetary policy with increasing interest rates up until very recent times.
Firstly during the Depression in the US unemployment reach about 25%. Average wages for those still working fell 42% and US economic output fell from US$103 to US$55 Billion per year. World trade plummeted 65%. GDP in the US from 1929 to 1933 was -8.6%, -6.4%, -13.0% & -1.3% respectively. And finally it is now widely accepted that the US Federal Reserve aggravated the depression by cutting the monetary supply by about 30% where as today they are increasing it.
So what do I think will happen? Well as far as I can see the US has been pretty close to if not already in a recession and it will probably be in it for at least four more quarters. The rest of the world isn’t immune to the woes of the US. Europe is heading for a recession and I can see Asia, Australia and New Zealand doing the same. What will govern who comes out of the recession first is who went into one earlier and where interest rates stand in each country. Based on this I can see the US and Asia will probably lead a recovery because of a low interest rate environment in these economies right now and Europe, Australia and New Zealand lagging substantially behind because there central banks have been tightening monetary policy with increasing interest rates up until very recent times.
ill help you out
Joined: Jul 2005
Posts: 1,117
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From: Hong Kong
I think in the next few months we will find out who has borrowed too much and paid silly prices for silly investments.
As they say "only when the water moves out will we see who has no swimsuit on"
As they say "only when the water moves out will we see who has no swimsuit on"
Joined: Sep 2007
Posts: 947
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From: asia
A "townhouse" at the "new" development in Tung Chung has gone from an eyewatering HK$11000/sq ft to slightly more than half that amount in three days.
IMHO, Tung Chung : Central/DB prices for the pleasure of being the first ones to suck in the lovely pearl river delta toxins, mixed with copious amounts of jet fuel ( ever wondered why your floors are black ) and the dulcet tones of a GE/Pratt/RR every 2 minutes, I mean, why would'nt ya
PS any TCers interested in some AIG shares
Joined: Jun 2000
Posts: 476
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hey froggie, it was Warren Buffett who said :
"It's is only when the tide goes out do we see who is swimming naked !"
He has a way with words.
As an aside, Allco Finance Group whose directors were David Turnball, Rod Eddington, Bob Mansfield etc were sitting at just over the $ 13 mark per share around early '07 before the Qantas takeover was blocked .... now at 13 c.
What do you reckon would have happened to QF if the take over did go ahead and they, as detailed, stripped the cash out of the company before this fall happened?
I reckon the KRuddster would have to put his hand in his pockets.
Goodbye future fund.
"It's is only when the tide goes out do we see who is swimming naked !"
He has a way with words.
As an aside, Allco Finance Group whose directors were David Turnball, Rod Eddington, Bob Mansfield etc were sitting at just over the $ 13 mark per share around early '07 before the Qantas takeover was blocked .... now at 13 c.
What do you reckon would have happened to QF if the take over did go ahead and they, as detailed, stripped the cash out of the company before this fall happened?
I reckon the KRuddster would have to put his hand in his pockets.
Goodbye future fund.
Joined: Jul 2002
Posts: 187
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From: lapbandland
Worse, Eddington is also a non-exec director of JP Morgan Aust.
Somehow, a miracle occurred and finance was arranged thru JP Morgan
to keep Allco afloat and still trading, albeit at 13 cents.
Amazing how high finance works.
Somehow, a miracle occurred and finance was arranged thru JP Morgan
to keep Allco afloat and still trading, albeit at 13 cents.
Amazing how high finance works.
Joined: Jun 1999
Posts: 453
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404 titan,
all good points but its worth noting that the yardstick for the measurement of unemployment has changed in the US (and Australia) for a very good reason. Our "leaders" are not stoopid.
Its similar to changing the way murder is defined as apposed to KIA in Iraq in order to pretend the surge is working.
We dont know how many people are unemployed in the US when making comparisons to the great depression.
all good points but its worth noting that the yardstick for the measurement of unemployment has changed in the US (and Australia) for a very good reason. Our "leaders" are not stoopid.
Its similar to changing the way murder is defined as apposed to KIA in Iraq in order to pretend the surge is working.
We dont know how many people are unemployed in the US when making comparisons to the great depression.
Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 25
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From: US
trev, this crisis is just warming up, read below
"Panic, Consolidate, Game Over" by Jim Willie, CB, FSU Editorial 09/18/2008
"Panic, Consolidate, Game Over" by Jim Willie, CB, FSU Editorial 09/18/2008
Joined: Feb 2008
Posts: 113
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From: HK
Jim Willie (article above) is unable to contain is puerile glee at the potential end of "the world" proving his old doomsday scenario whinge had some oracle-like knowledge. Don't ya just love these guys who keep giving doomsday scenarios in the hope that someday the world will prove their worthless asses right. Ironic thing is that the fear terror and scare tactics of the press and load speakers are a SIGNIFICANT and overlooked major influencing factor on what is happening.
Trev, if your house is a home, then the value of that should be considered. The important thing though is to find some balanced opinions before making decisions and reactions.
The only thing the world is learning at the moment is there are no real "securities" or sure things, our habit of thinking we are in control is a bit misplaced. However while we cannot control what happens we can control how we respond. There are a lot of factors to consider, how long you intend staying here, your future plans, your current situation etc...those things are personal to you and could influence better your decision than ranting and ravings of journalists who were "wetting on themselves enough to print a heading called "I told you so"... that article is more about HIM than the current economic situation. Good luck though whichever way you decide.
Trev, if your house is a home, then the value of that should be considered. The important thing though is to find some balanced opinions before making decisions and reactions.
The only thing the world is learning at the moment is there are no real "securities" or sure things, our habit of thinking we are in control is a bit misplaced. However while we cannot control what happens we can control how we respond. There are a lot of factors to consider, how long you intend staying here, your future plans, your current situation etc...those things are personal to you and could influence better your decision than ranting and ravings of journalists who were "wetting on themselves enough to print a heading called "I told you so"... that article is more about HIM than the current economic situation. Good luck though whichever way you decide.
Last edited by volarecantare; 22nd September 2008 at 15:39.