JJW, I'm not amongst the minority at all. Most line drivers feel the same way. I've seen enough in the various insights over the last couple of years to believe that the current leadership views it the same way- once you cut through the usual argey bargey. That said, my personal feeling is that we're very close to a new President. Much more moderate and a bloke that I know 100% backs the unity of the pilot group and appropriately representing the J* and regional pilots.
A couple of other points.
1. Your comments about the COM. A number of COM members who put the EBA to the vote actually voted 'no'. With the mandate from the crew they are now in a far better position to go back and bargain with the company rather than just send the negotiating team back from the COM unsure of whether they had rank and file support. It should be noted that a number of those who voted to give the membership it's vote on EBA8 changed the wording from the AIPA COM 'recommending' to just 'acknowledging' the EBA offer before passing it on. Of course the President supported it but a number of those who said 'yes' on COM said 'no' in the final ballot.
2. My understanding of the proposed working structure is that whilst there would be J* seats at the AIPA COM, it would still be up to the J* COM members to recommend any proposed J* EBA to the J* pilot group. QF COM members would not be able to veto that with the strength of numbers.
Led, I'd be very surprised if QF decided to make crew redundant in order to send aircraft to J*. The redundancy package is generally 4-6 weeks per year worked. Given that under our EBA redundancy is offered before it's made compulsory in a 'last on, first off' type deal I suspect that we'd have a number of very senior crew with 30-40 years experience deciding that they may just like the three years pay on offer to go (and not forgetting the generous tax advantages of redundancy and the tax free super either). Then QF has the ongoing costs of promotion and type transfers to replace those crew. All this to save about $300K per airframe in pay terms? I don't think so. Sure, we can use your Lehman's analogy. It applies equally to the J* international operation. I bet if that happens the J* crew will be desperate to take up the 7:20 slots set aside for them and won't mind being a part of AIPA then.
PS: The BALPA type set up is what is proposed for any coverage of J* and regional crew. They still have their own COM but they have the support of the wider organisation and other pilot bodies.