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Old 15th Sep 2008, 14:01
  #142 (permalink)  
Wizofoz
 
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: Boldly going where no split infinitive has gone before..
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RAD ALT ALIVE,

Very insightful and valid post, with one (important) point on which I must dis-agree-

The growth phase of an airline is never a good time to compare it's ultimate perceived performance.
In fact, the traditional Low Cost Carrier model ONLY WORKS whilst the operation is expanding.

Why?

1) New aircraft meaning low maintenance, good operating economics and high on-sale value.

2) Constant recruiting of staff meaning a high percentage of the workforce is relatively new, willing to work for lower wages (which keeps wage demands from longer serving staff in check) and is still in the "Honeymoon" phase when it comes to enthusiasm and dedication.

3) Ability to pioneer new routes not recognized by the competition.

It is in fact when a LoCo starts to mature that reality starts to set in in the form of older, out of warranty aircraft, staff wanting a better deal and increased competition on routes they used to have a monopoly on and things get tough.

This is certainly what has happened at Jetblue and Southwest, and is starting to eat into easyJet and Ryanairs long-term feasibility.

The moral is, if J* ISN'T making a decent ROI in this initial phase, there are probably storm clouds ahead as to its' potential for long term growth and survival.
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