I have been following this thread with some interest. My job is to raise money for companies. I have done this job for more years than I care to admit and this is the worst it has ever been. This credit 'crisis' started 13 months ago, and despite what people say, is still ongoing with no end in sight.... The politicians have opened every loophole to facilitate the flow of credit, but just when we think things get better, we get some new disaster ie nationalisation of the US retail mortgage market, another US bank (Lehmans) on the ropes etc.
There is a huge amount of fear in the investor base, especially over the strength of any financial instutition. This means the price they demand is high. Therefore you have all the major Aussie banks raising funds about 0.5% - 1% higher than last yr, and still going up. For the UK, French, Spanish & Irish banks it is much higher (when they can actually find an investor to give them the money in the first place). These entities already have weak balance sheets, so cant absorb this cost, so they pass it on.
Essentially the cost of money is going up...alot. This is going to effect some many different areas of lives, as things inevitably get more expensive. This recession will not be short and I really hope we hit bottom in 2009 (as mentioned earlier), but no one really knows. The spectre of a Japanese decade-long recession is unlikely as the cultures are so much different, but the 3yrs mentioned elsewhere on this thread, should be what people should be expecting (read, hoping) for. And I really cant see banks offering trainee pilots (or anyone else for that matter) £60k+ in the future, unless it is secured on a house with a lot of positive equity in it.
The terrible failure of yet another large aviation/travel company, XL (and my sympathy to all their employees) is just highlighting how difficult it is for this industry, and Wille Walsh's comments should be listened too. Their woes are also being compounded by a high oil price. Speculation has played a part in the price volatility, but with China, India etc industralising, it is never going back down to $40 - 60 until we find a viable alternative (or the US find their own Ghawar oil field...)
As someone who is learning to fly (PPL) and is looking at switching professions in the future, modular seems the most sensible approach for any wannabe in this market, aiming to be qualified in 3-4yrs time...but only just my opinion. It is sad to predict, but there will be better qualified candidates for any pilot position for the next couple of years as the recent surplus of redundant pilots is absorbed.
Will probably regret sticking my neck out
