One thing I don't think has been mentioned yet is that the banks/lenders are going to (already are) getting burned by the money they have lent to people to do flight training.
Spot on.
This happened in the USA a few years ago. Loads of students got into debt, banks then made financing to student pilots very hard to get. Consequently, much much harder now for USA wannabes (remember, totally different training structure compared to UK fATPL) to get funding. Which actually means that there are far less students becoming pilots - hence pilot shortage fears.
The same WILL happen over here. As soon as all the reckless people getting into vast sums of debt now start defaulting and causing banks problems; they will pull the plug on pilot financing. Maybe OK for all the rich lot with parents supporting them or houses to use guarantees. This is very bad news for students coming out of school/uni or on the financial fringe trying to get loans.
I bet you this is what happens;
- 2008-2010 massive pool of fATPLs with no jobs
- Banks (already in bad times with sub prime loans) make pilot financing extremley hard to get when they get p*ssed off with defaulters
- Come 2012, if recruitment starts again, pilot training will be only for rich
- Come 2015 with massive airline expansion & recruitment, therell be another 'pilot shortage', akin to the days of 1998.
Sounds like history repeating itself!!!!