I cannot see the what the fundemental basis of this upcoming recession is
Simply put: the banks fund the real economy with loans. Loans have dried up, or become markedly more expensive. Quite a large number of companies face upcoming refinancing issues due to expiry of previous bonds / loans (similar to a huge upcoming number of US homeowners on adjustable rate mortgages, who are facing huge rate rises at the end of this year and into the next).
Companies will not be able to refinance, and be able to afford spending as they have to date. Unemployment will rise temporarily, until banking is on a more substatial footing.
With any luck, the poorer companies will fail, their capital and labour recycled into better companies, and banks start to trust each other once again. The longer that process is drawn out by meddling governments who do not understand economics, the longer and deeper the downturn will be.
Outside the UK, Europe and the US, Asian economies are a mess - inflation is massive (30% in Vietnam), and dependent upon a few products or resources in many cases that are hughly volatile in price.
Falling oil prices should worry us as much as the rise has as well, as this indicates that start of the real cutback in spending over the next 2 years.
Economics 101 over.