I think you are probably right, we can certainly expect a reduction in capacity from Thomas Cook next season Thomson have announced an overall reduction but I don't know about NCL.
Lo-cost, I think we may see the odd new route from either Jet 2 (Ibiza) and from EZY and, of course if the rumours about Ryanair and Flyglobespan are true, that might help. Flybe usually comes up with something new each year and Air Southwest could increase frequency next season if they do well this year.
Legacy carriers....Lufthansa (new route) and an increase in frequency to 2 daily on Copenhagen are the main outside possibilities. Aer Arran....will they return or not?