You think oil at circa $115 a barrel ISN'T high? High oil prices are crippling many airlines. That has not changed. Its doubled and then come back 20%. I wouldn't call a one month movement a heading myself.
My point is that a narrow focus on oil price is a mistake. As a component of a ticket it is usually less than half the cost. It is not price elasticity that will prove the real crisis - its people not paying any price, high or low, because their behaviour has changed due to a recession.
If oil fell tomorrow to $50 a barrel the economy would still be headed for recession as the biggest credit bubble in history unwinds. The recession will lead to less business and leisure travel and this will see the usual patterns of airline failures. Oil is just an added irritant to an underlying serious condition.
Globally its not a bad time to be a Wannabe. In the Western World its about to become a terrible time to be a Wannabe. Especially a Wannabe in high debt.
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