I have to agree with those who think the crunch is due to factors other than oil. Banks have recently been selling increasingly dodgy products to increasingly risky punters. Case in point is Northern Rock. A lot of their problems came from unchecked sales made by individuals with their eye on the bonus they'd make from said sale. Up until a few months ago you could get an instant online approval for a loan!
Now the banks are all sh1tt1ng themselves 'cos they've realised that lots of people can't/ won't make the payments now that they've spent all the money they realised from their refinancing. So no-ones lending, so no-ones spending, and so the fun begins...
I can't claim to make any sense of why the oil prices have rocketed recently, I read somewhere that it might have something to do with the futures market? Whatever the cause, a 1/3 rise in prices at the pumps is just the icing on the cake for the punter in the street whose remortgage cash has just run out, whose house value is dropping, and who is seeing food and utility costs going up at what has recently been a ridiculous rate.
Having said all of that, the week in the sun may well be one of the last things to go, 'cos in the modern idiom stuff like that is viewed as a necessity by many, rather than luxury.
To be fair though, I don't think anyone can accurately predict what the near future holds economically. I like to think (or is that hope?) that the fact that the BoE is run by people who actually know about money, rather than an elected official with their eye on the vote, might help smooth things a bit this time round