PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
Old 4th Jul 2008, 12:10
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Tony Hirst
Formerly HWD
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Indochina
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What you are failing to realise is that we are on our way into a downturn, were far from in there yet, things will get a whole lot worse.
I just don't see it that way? Apart from the banks it all up, what exactly is it about the economy as it stands that puts us in a recession. All the factors we have seen are because of a booming world economy. We consume, they produce. At some point they reach self sustaining speed and then consume and then some other countries become producers, etc. The Credit Crunch is just a natty phrase looking for a problem. The banks cannot sustain their businesses with their current knee jerk tightening of loan criteria, they will have to open up again soon. The oil price is not as critical as people suggest, people will adjust their expectations and then spend as they did before and as they have done during previous fuel costs hikes.

If anything, this process may work in all our favours, by slowing the economy and permitting some introspection rather than creating more burstable bubbles. It appears that a slow down in Europe and America is going to be healthy for some of the Asian economies that were starting to overheat with near uncontrolable high inflation. What's good for one invariably ends up being good for the other.
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