Thylacine with all due respect...BS.
I got to the end of your post and thought "well there is 3 minutes I'll never get back".
This will take considerably longer than 3 minutes to digest.
http://new.api.org/aboutoilgas/secur...OilEPorter.pdf
As far as GST on fuel excise is concerned...that is just criminal...I am stunned that there has not been outrage Australia wide.
Supply currently exceeds demand...we know that because everyone can buy fuel whenever they need fuel...unlike the 70s when I had just bought my first car.
Supply doesn't exceed demand by much because that would just be bad management on the part of petroleum companies.
The oil close offshore in the US and in Alaska is not theory they have proved its there they are just barred from going and getting it. Ditto with the oil shale, Tar sands etc. This is not theory these are decades old recognised resources but the technology had to reach a point where it was economical to extract.
Technology reached that point in the mid 90s but the price was too low to be economical...the price was low until a few short years ago because of resource abundance.
In the 1920s they declared a well tapped out after extracting about 18-20% of the oil in that well. By the 70s it was closer to 30%. These days it ranges between 50-70%.
Think about that for a minute. That is the effect of improving technology. The peak oilers seem to believe technology will now stop improving...their theories rely on that to be true but it has never been true since the day mankind first picked up a rock and decked his nagging missus.
Trillions of barrels of oil have been discovered/become viable resources since the 70s and at extraction prices circa 1/4 of what we are currently paying
PLUS oil companies get to go back and hoover double the original amount out of old wells.
Supply currently meets demand and there is no rational basis to believe that won't continue to be the case long after we, and our children, are all dead. There is no rational basis to believe technology won't continue to evolve and viable alternatives replace segments of the transport industry over time therefore reducing the demand on oil.
Yet 'fears' that supply might be a concern in the future lead, in great part, to this current oil bubble. If there is
ONE thing mankind
SHOULD have learned by now it is predicting the future is a wholly futile waste of time.
Fears about the future essentially NEVER eventuate and are almost wholly started by people with agendas be they media circulation or running up the share price of a carbon trading company you happen to own if you're Al Gore.
What might have worried your great, great grandfather (and no doubt made the news papers daily) if you could go back and ask him in 1900?
He worried about the mounting problem of horse **** and where would they get enough horses and what would they do with all the **** as the population grew and rode more and more horses...it'll be a catastrophy! We'll be neck deep in horse **** by 1940, it'll be a smelly nightmare and the health problems will overwhelm the ability for the govt to cope.
He worried about the mounting costs of wood for cooking and keeping his family warm in winter. He probably worried that wood was going to run out and that coal was too because they certainly didn't have the technology to extract coal the way we do today and forests were severely threatened and wood getting VERY expensive, if you lived in the cities 100 years ago, from increasing demand, diminishing resources increasingly removed from cities as they cut down trees and had to transport it further and further to supply the markets in the cities.
The technology leap from wooden sailing ships to steel steamships happened because wood (and skilled shipwright labour) was getting too bloody expensive and the right kind too rare not because they didn't like sailing ships...it was the technology they understood and mankind doesn't go looking for alternatives to what patently works unless he has no choice.
Forests are now more abundant that at anytime in the last 1000 years because mankind doesn't use timber the way he used to...it is also cheaper than it was for the same reasons.
Eventually, maybe in a 100-200 years, Oil will be the same.
Mankind has never depleted a resource whether renewable or not...never!
Why will that change?
Within 10 years or so something your great, great grandfather had never heard of and couldn't have conceived of burst onto the scene...cars...and all of a sudden horses and horse **** were no longer worrying. Then natural gas removed his worries about wood and coal. Modern use of fossil fuels cleaned up the cities enormously, improving peoples lives in all sorts of ways.
Sorry I refuse to worry about stuff that hasn't happened yet and is HIGHLY unlikely to happen.
Edited to be more readable...I was half asleep writing last night.