Record Oil Prices and Jobs
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Record Oil Prices and Jobs
Recently I posted on another thread querying the wisdom of the many Wannabees looking to become pilots in times of rising oil prices. My opinions were met with howls of derision by some who couldn't countenance the prospect of their "dream" being snatched away from them.
Record oil prices this week have only served to highlight my concern. And the future is bleak. This week I read the boss of Shell claim that by 2015 the world will not produce enough conventional oil to meet demand. If this is the doomsday "peak oil" scenario, then perhaps we are nearing the breaking point where large numbers of major carriers become unviable. I guess this would be when you could say "Pilot Shortage Over!"
So can any prospective pilots tell us whether they have considered the prospect of say $400 oil prices causing a massive contraction in the industry, taking your jobs with it? Or do these issues not even register, in the hope that alternative energy fuels will save the day and be the driver of continued growth?
This is not a pretty topic considering the time, money and emotion invested. But I feel it needs to be discussed.
Thoughts, anyone?
Record oil prices this week have only served to highlight my concern. And the future is bleak. This week I read the boss of Shell claim that by 2015 the world will not produce enough conventional oil to meet demand. If this is the doomsday "peak oil" scenario, then perhaps we are nearing the breaking point where large numbers of major carriers become unviable. I guess this would be when you could say "Pilot Shortage Over!"
So can any prospective pilots tell us whether they have considered the prospect of say $400 oil prices causing a massive contraction in the industry, taking your jobs with it? Or do these issues not even register, in the hope that alternative energy fuels will save the day and be the driver of continued growth?
This is not a pretty topic considering the time, money and emotion invested. But I feel it needs to be discussed.
Thoughts, anyone?
AustralianMade
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...the boss of Shell claim that by 2015 the world will not produce enough conventional oil to meet demand.
Brazil have recently found oil reserves comparable to those in Saudi.
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"Necessity is the mother of invention", as the old maxim goes, may precipitate humanity seeking a way around the use of oil to power flight. After all, the internal combustion engine was the response to the inefficient use of steam locomotion, which in turn lead to the development of the jet to fly faster, higher & more efficiently. So what's next up the evolutionary chain? Hydrogen fuel perhaps? Once the supply can be produced cheaply (relative to Jet A1 or whatever) and it can be proven reliable and safe, regardless of what substitute is settled upon, expect to see it taken up by designers and regulators.
What then the future for the 'oil' industry? Watch as gas stations are converted to handle the new energy form.
Remember, margarine was 'invented' as a butter substitute. Look at the comparative prices of those two now, despite the complexity of the margarine-making process.
Le Vieux
What then the future for the 'oil' industry? Watch as gas stations are converted to handle the new energy form.
Remember, margarine was 'invented' as a butter substitute. Look at the comparative prices of those two now, despite the complexity of the margarine-making process.
Le Vieux
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The Canadian oil sands for example have an unknown quantity of oil. Up until recently the process of extraction was too expensive, its now viable comparitively speaking as it appears oil will remain over US$100.
As extraction techniques have improved and oil that was not classed as light sweet is also becoming viable. Many old wells are being re-visited as they can now justify the continued cost of production. Unfortunately these will all take time to come on line and until they do, our friends in the sand pit will continue to kill the pig.
I read a quote once from a Saudi oil baron, (i'm sure someone can correct my aging memory). He said, "my grandfather rode a camel, my father rode a bicycle, I drive a rolls royce and my son will again ride a camel'. They know that their stuff is drying up, its their time and they are making the most of it. Who can blame them? If I had a commodity that was in demand I would want the most I could get for it as well.
As extraction techniques have improved and oil that was not classed as light sweet is also becoming viable. Many old wells are being re-visited as they can now justify the continued cost of production. Unfortunately these will all take time to come on line and until they do, our friends in the sand pit will continue to kill the pig.
I read a quote once from a Saudi oil baron, (i'm sure someone can correct my aging memory). He said, "my grandfather rode a camel, my father rode a bicycle, I drive a rolls royce and my son will again ride a camel'. They know that their stuff is drying up, its their time and they are making the most of it. Who can blame them? If I had a commodity that was in demand I would want the most I could get for it as well.
Question:
What is the most efficient means of moving people from one place to another?
Answer:
You guessed it!
Air travel will survive in it's current form after all others have either adapted to some alternative, or are forced into extinction. Mind you, some may have to ride the camel to the airport.
What is the most efficient means of moving people from one place to another?
Answer:
You guessed it!
Air travel will survive in it's current form after all others have either adapted to some alternative, or are forced into extinction. Mind you, some may have to ride the camel to the airport.
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Theres a whisper going the rounds that the current high price of oil is the result of speculators cashing in before the inevitable bubble bursts caused by (in part - high gas prices!) the US economy sliding deeper into recession.
Think long term - as others have said, theres plenty of oil around just not the cheap stuff anymore.
The major difference as i see it is when the first oil shock came around in the 70's many people started to downsize theirs cars and this brought about the compact car design that is selling so well today.
With todays technology company's must (and will) make a better, more efficient car designs that do not rely on a single power source. The Japanese do and this at the moment and there dominance is a result of their long term thinking, unlike Fords and GM who are in deep doo doo and playing a desperate game of catch up.
Joke doing the rounds at the moment;
'how do you double the value of a large car - fill it with petrol'.
Think long term - as others have said, theres plenty of oil around just not the cheap stuff anymore.
The major difference as i see it is when the first oil shock came around in the 70's many people started to downsize theirs cars and this brought about the compact car design that is selling so well today.
With todays technology company's must (and will) make a better, more efficient car designs that do not rely on a single power source. The Japanese do and this at the moment and there dominance is a result of their long term thinking, unlike Fords and GM who are in deep doo doo and playing a desperate game of catch up.
Joke doing the rounds at the moment;
'how do you double the value of a large car - fill it with petrol'.
Silly Old Git
I read a quote once from a Saudi oil baron, (i'm sure someone can correct my aging memory). He said, "my grandfather rode a camel, my father rode a bicycle, I drive a rolls royce and my son will again ride a camel'. They know that their stuff is drying up, its their time and they are making the most of it. Who can blame them? If I had a commodity that was in demand I would want the most I could get for it as well.
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Meanwhile, I see the latest oil 'high' has hit the motorists in NZ in the wallet. At lunchtime today BP's price for 'standard' fuel shows at the pump as 200.9c/l. Well, there goes the $2 per litre barrier. How long before the increased fuel cost component shows up as a surcharge/increased ticket price in aviation?
My bet: very soon. And I only ever bet on certainties.
Krusty 34: I would be interested to see some figures. I'm not doubting your assertion and concede that long-distance travel is far quicker by air. I suppose it would depend on which factors, such as larger loss of productive time in surface travel, are taken into account when the calcs are being done. "One man's meat" and all that.
Le Vieux
My bet: very soon. And I only ever bet on certainties.
Krusty 34: I would be interested to see some figures. I'm not doubting your assertion and concede that long-distance travel is far quicker by air. I suppose it would depend on which factors, such as larger loss of productive time in surface travel, are taken into account when the calcs are being done. "One man's meat" and all that.
Le Vieux
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reporter on ch 10 news quoted that approx $50 a barrel is pure speculation at this point, factoring in Cost of production, supply and demand, the price should be approx $80. the rest is purely industry speculation.
all big booms come to a rapid end.
all big booms come to a rapid end.
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Interesting article in the local rag agrees with you ultra. The marginal price of oil is estimated at $80. This is the base floor price.
Iran has tanker loads of heavy crude they can't find a buyer for. Heavy crude is not as easily refined as light crude though and hence not as marketable, but it is still oil.
OPEC believe supply is not the problem and are hesitant to increase production fearing a massive price plunge.
The current prices are purely speculative and rely on rumours of plant maintenance, summer driving season (in winter its blamed on heating oil) and whatever else they can think of to justify the speculative prices (and these institutions have billions riding on these rumours)
The price is now so far removed from the estimated base price that there is potential for a huge price crash.
Iran has tanker loads of heavy crude they can't find a buyer for. Heavy crude is not as easily refined as light crude though and hence not as marketable, but it is still oil.
OPEC believe supply is not the problem and are hesitant to increase production fearing a massive price plunge.
The current prices are purely speculative and rely on rumours of plant maintenance, summer driving season (in winter its blamed on heating oil) and whatever else they can think of to justify the speculative prices (and these institutions have billions riding on these rumours)
The price is now so far removed from the estimated base price that there is potential for a huge price crash.
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....................."So what's next up the evolutionary chain?' what's next could be vessels containing humans in a stationary (to the earths environment) low level orbit so that the world below rotates under them at very high speed to bring their destination to them rather than them (humans) going to their destination
CW
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Pilots are a little scared to leave Australia to work in the Middle East, for what ever reasons, this is the best country in the world, I want my kids to grow up in Australia, once I leave I will never be able to come home, etc etc.
Maybe its time to head off to the middle east to work for these carriers, they are the only airlines that will have the oil rationed to them as it starts to peak? Any thoughts?
Pilots are not that great at thinking long term. Just look at our industrial relations history. Maybe its just OPEC turning the screws, maybe its not?
What if the oil is really running out. The airline pilot will be the first of energy reliant occupations to become extinct!
Maybe its time to head off to the middle east to work for these carriers, they are the only airlines that will have the oil rationed to them as it starts to peak? Any thoughts?
Pilots are not that great at thinking long term. Just look at our industrial relations history. Maybe its just OPEC turning the screws, maybe its not?
What if the oil is really running out. The airline pilot will be the first of energy reliant occupations to become extinct!
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Yes, that would work Wally and be faster than present jet travel. Equatorial earth rotation speed is around 1000mph but diminishing to zero at the poles.
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The most efficient form of transport?
If we are talking about consumption of fossil fuel, nothing beats riding a bicycle. However according to this report, the A380 and B787 are aiming for 3 litres of fuel per 100 passenger-kilometres. This compares with a Toyota Prius, which uses around 5.8 litres per 100 kilometres. Obviously if the Prius contains five people instead of just the driver, it is more efficient than an A380 (although you don't get cabin service). And an A380 with half its seats unoccupied is less fuel-efficient than a Prius with just a driver.
The thing that distinguishes aircraft, particularly for longer
distances is that they take people on journeys that, mostly, they would simply never consider making otherwise. It makes sense to compare convenience and fuel consumption of travelling from Sydney to Canberra (320 km) by car or by flying but these are not interchangeable options for travelling from Sydney to London.
The thing that distinguishes aircraft, particularly for longer
distances is that they take people on journeys that, mostly, they would simply never consider making otherwise. It makes sense to compare convenience and fuel consumption of travelling from Sydney to Canberra (320 km) by car or by flying but these are not interchangeable options for travelling from Sydney to London.
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Sydney to Canberra (or Melbourne or Adelaide) would be much quicker, cleaner, easier and less polluting if done by high-speed train.
The trains can be powered by nuclear generated electricity. We have the uranium to power the reactors, the expertise to build them, the space to locate them and the sea water to cool them.
Just lack the pols with the vision and the courage to do it.
We do have plenty of Nimbys and Greens who would oppose nuclear power though. Wonder if they look closely at who funds them?
The trains can be powered by nuclear generated electricity. We have the uranium to power the reactors, the expertise to build them, the space to locate them and the sea water to cool them.
Just lack the pols with the vision and the courage to do it.
We do have plenty of Nimbys and Greens who would oppose nuclear power though. Wonder if they look closely at who funds them?
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Inexhaustibility of aviation fuel
Aviation fuel will not run out in the lifetime of anyone currently considering flying as a career, although it may get rather more expensive.
Besides the tar sand reserves already mentioned by a couple of people, liquid fuel equivalent to petrol, diesel (and presumably jet fuel) can be manufactured from coal, using a process developed and put into production in Germany during the Second World War.
For instance a firm, Monash Energy, hopes to eventually manufacture 60,000 barrels a day of diesel fuel from Victorian brown coal and sequester the carbon dioxide by-product by burying it deep underground. It is not forthcoming about its current progress and it may fail. But if the commercial incentive is there, sooner or later, someone else will try.
The looming issue for "dirty" oil sources such as tar sands and coal is that of carbon taxes or traded carbon permits (already in place to a limited extent in the European Union). Pollution charges will hit airlines both through increased fuel cost and, more than likely, through additional charges reflecting damage done by snorting out jet exhaust at 35,000 feet.
However can anyone can find data showing how the price of an aircraft seat-mile has changed over the past 50 years? I suspect that flying is cheaper now than it has ever been (even when oil was under $20 a barrel), and that if fares double, the industry will still continue to grow.
Besides the tar sand reserves already mentioned by a couple of people, liquid fuel equivalent to petrol, diesel (and presumably jet fuel) can be manufactured from coal, using a process developed and put into production in Germany during the Second World War.
For instance a firm, Monash Energy, hopes to eventually manufacture 60,000 barrels a day of diesel fuel from Victorian brown coal and sequester the carbon dioxide by-product by burying it deep underground. It is not forthcoming about its current progress and it may fail. But if the commercial incentive is there, sooner or later, someone else will try.
The looming issue for "dirty" oil sources such as tar sands and coal is that of carbon taxes or traded carbon permits (already in place to a limited extent in the European Union). Pollution charges will hit airlines both through increased fuel cost and, more than likely, through additional charges reflecting damage done by snorting out jet exhaust at 35,000 feet.
However can anyone can find data showing how the price of an aircraft seat-mile has changed over the past 50 years? I suspect that flying is cheaper now than it has ever been (even when oil was under $20 a barrel), and that if fares double, the industry will still continue to grow.
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As much as we all might think the high oil prices may spell doom & gloom for us aviation nuts the industry will grow regardless of the oil price. How else in our lifetime do we get to far away places in a reasonable time? By aircraft, no current other way is as cheap at the moment or as quick. Humans will always want to travel & we shall simply pay for the privilege.
Remember when the petrol price rose to $1 per ltr? We all jumped up & down screaming yet there are now record numbers of new cars being put on the rd these days than ever b4. Sadly we shall pay $2 & beyond for petrol anytime soon & there's nothing we can do about it in the foreseeable future!
CW
Remember when the petrol price rose to $1 per ltr? We all jumped up & down screaming yet there are now record numbers of new cars being put on the rd these days than ever b4. Sadly we shall pay $2 & beyond for petrol anytime soon & there's nothing we can do about it in the foreseeable future!
CW
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Just out of interest, current price of fuel in Dubai (98 RON) - .42 cents litre AUD, recently in Tehran .10 cents US a litre, here in Bern Switzerland 1.90 Euro a litre. 
plus Milan this arvo 1.50 Euro a litro
plus Milan this arvo 1.50 Euro a litro
Last edited by V1650; 22nd May 2008 at 18:01. Reason: price update