Can BA Sustain its LON-SYD Route With the 747?
Operated under the terms of the Joint Service Agreement (JSA) with Qantas, British Airways' dedication to an historic link to one of the farthest outposts of the Commonwealth is rumoured to be not long for this world, a BA source has revealed.
Having pulled out of Brisbane and Perth many years ago, and ended direct services to Melbourne in 2004, after a previous hiatus in 1999, last year BA reduced SYD flights via SIN to 777 only, when previously both SIN and BKK flights where served using gas-guzzling but passenger friendly 747s.
At the summit of the International Air Transport Association Willy Walsh publicly stated that BA will mothball aircraft this winter, with oil at $130 a barrel that seems a prudent management decision. And this mothballing is believed to be focussed on older 747 and 767 longhaul aircraft.
But his musings point more to a reduction in frequency rather than an all out route elimination:
"We will be looking at some routes to see if we can take out some frequency," he said. "We are in uncharted waters.
"I see no option but to take capacity out. It doesn't make sense with oil at $130 a barrel to operate flights which have not made a contribution to our cash situation."
With the oneworld agreement coming up for renegotiation in October this year, Qantas is becoming noticeably more distant from its oneworld partner at LHR.
The Australian carrier now uses its own handling agents and check in staff. Moving out of T4 to T3 without being invited to share T5, it seems that close relationship may be up for grabs as well. So this potential reduction may well be simply posturing in order to gain agreement to continue the lucrative oneworld/JSA agreement. But maybe not.
BA needs to save fuel, so it is the longer, less lucrative services which will be looked at first, and particularly those using the 747 fleet.
Removing the 747 BKK-SYD service has the advantage of not impacting the airline's slot use at LHR which under the use it or lose it rules must be kept in action despite the fleet reduction.
Axing these services could allow the removal of 3 747s from the fleet, mothballed until the oil price stabilises; they may or may not be replaced by 777s.
However available 777 aircraft are scarce in the BA fleet, having lost a hull of one of their more modern -ER planes in the BA 38 incident and currently taking one aircraft out of service on rotation from October.
With only 15 777s in the fleet correctly kitted out with the required crew rest bunks for such long haul sectors, there may be difficultly finding replacement aircraft for this route, resulting in reduction of frequency or an outright cessation of service.
The SYD route makes a lot more sense using the more efficient A380 and 787 Dreamliner aircraft, but with these not entering the BA fleet until 2010 at the earliest, it may be a while before the economics of a BA link to Australia make sense once again.