Slim
I would add that in addition to the TAF what the metar is reporting when compared to the TAF and also your previous experience at airports in that area at that time of year.
The TAF are normally fairly accurate, but not by any means infallible,
league tables IMHO only encourage people to take risks, sooner or later a "weak" crew (newish Captain low hour F/O) will get into a situation where they will be forced to either land below minima or go around to divert to somewhere they don't have enough fuel left to get to, and make the wrong call because of MOL fear over their jobs, even if the fear is only in their own heads.
Base Captains and trainers are not super heros (or super pilots for that matter) plog fuel is for nice days or nights not for ABZ in winter or EDI at rush hour or PMI on a Sat or LHR most days or LBA on any day when there is the letter A in it!!