I agree with you Shed-on-a-pole.
MAN should not expect the major expansion but I do feel that the way MOL will play it is by going head into the recession. Sort of a 'come and get me' statement. He will not be grounding 20 planes this winter as explained on another post. There won't be planes sat on the ground for 5 months while we wait for the summer season to start! It means it is the equivalent of 20 planes meaning the a/c will do less sectors per day. Yes they will spend more time on the ground, maybe operating an operation similar to an airline that treats the planes well and doesn't crank up the hours on it's plane's engines (not that I am saying that is a bad thing - works for FR!)
I do believe that FR will grow in the MAN market and they can't afford not to. MAN is going to become a U2 playground if the recession takes hold on the likes of WW and LS and the only way for FR to combat that is to expand at the airport, which to be perfectly honest, I see happening within the 12 months. I'm not expecting a BHX style expansion yet, but I would be surprised if FR were to avoid MAN if one of the other locos was going to joing EOS, MaxJet, ATA etc. in the graveyard.