bermudatriangle and All,
Expansion on a significant scale at MAN by Ryanair is not assured. The four routes launched in April - whilst very welcome - amount to just twelve departures per week. At the time, Ryanair stated that a further four routes ex-MAN would follow with a launch date of June 2008, and four more routes beyond that for next Winter. However, there has been no sniff of an announcement regarding new routes since that initial press release. If they intend to launch new routes in June they really need to be placing them on sale right now. Another possible explanation is that they have quietly shelved plans for the four new routes in June and hope that everybody has forgotten about them. You may recall that the original press-release did seem like a rushed-job in response to Easyjet's big announcement the previous day.
Now I hope that I am wrong and that Ryanair do indeed announce those four new routes for June launch. But if they do not, what does that imply for those services promised next Winter and beyond? Perhaps it is premature to assume that Ryanair has big plans for MAN; they have committed themselves to a major base at BHX since the original MAN announcement, and generally tough market conditions (notably fuel costs) have led to RYR suggesting that they will ground 20 aircraft for Winter 2008/9. Even Ryanair must respond to the harsh realities of economic slowdown. One is forced to wonder whether - under these conditions - the company view expansion at MAN with quite the same enthusiasm that we contributors to this thread do.
Some observant readers may have noticed a significant snippet of information in the Thomsonfly thread. Fleet distribution plans for the merged TOM/FCA airline call for a reduction of FIVE based aircraft at MAN for Summer 2009. Just stop for a moment and consider the impact of this single news item; its not a headline-grabber like the BA JFK decision but it is massively more significant. This substantial setback alone outweighs all commitments to MAN offered by Easyjet's proposal to eventually base five (smaller) aircraft at MAN themselves. Ryanair's existing programme does not come close to offsetting cutbacks by the combined MyTravel/Thomas Cook operation, cutbacks by XL, Astraeus etc, and the disappearance of Flyjet and British Jet. We are looking at lean times going forward and will be best served by being realistic about that.
The idea that Ryanair and Easyjet will save the day by committing vast resources to an enhanced MAN operation in the future is an attractive dream to many. But it may be unwise to presume that significant additional expansion from them will actually transpire in the medium term. And we must be prepared for the possibility that some carriers already serving MAN will not emerge from the other side of this coming recession. I write this on the day that EOS failed; not a MAN operator I know, but another symptom of difficult times ahead. Think not to service expansion; think to service retention!
Best to All. SHED.