Mecenary Pilot, it's been some time since I was on pprune other than a few random visits of late, good to see familiar names
You are indeed correct they train over here and then stay on here too. However I was really making the point of overseas candidates from further afield such as Asia that are in the pipeline of something back in their own respective countries due to them being sponsored either in a full or partial capacity. I know for example there are quite a few Middle East students at Cabair and thus would more than likely be heading back home (once some of them 'finally' complete their course
).
Nevertheless you're right the UK job market does have a bit of a Roman trading port feel to it with various nationalities all drawn to the relatively liberal job market here than back home. However lets not get too drawn into this because if it's not one thing then I can assure you it would be something else, such is life.
One issue of significant merit that would impact these figures which no one appears to be mentioning is that of new starters or those currently engaged in the midst of their training. What exactly am I refering to ....? Well that rather fundamental variable of all aviation training.... finance. In the days of plenty with music, flowing wine and a fine maiden to tickle your fancy it's seemed that the biggest hurdles to funding training where a few admin orientated issues, not so anymore. With a lot of people planning to borrow initially or as they progressed module to module are now finding themselves having to slow down their training as they revert back to the earn and spend principle and until you havent earned it you won't be able to take the next step in training. This will begin to impact the training institutions and more overly the student that now trains slower and will have to think twice about funding a type rating with a such a cavalier fashion. That in my humble opinion will surely have a negative impact on the statistical data and output of CPL (A). In fact the more accurate measure would surely be to determine the IR (A) issued by the CAA especially as people put off the more expensive component of training until better times or simply adjust course and head for the Instructor route whilst waiting for the storm to pass.