Hamburg has an ILS to RWY 23, and only LOC to RWY 33. As far as I know, gusts do not get taken into account for calculating xwinds with Lufthansa. It is the steady component that counts.
So I would have chosen 23 over 33 there also, just to have the vertical guidance and be able to give more of my capacity to the monitoring of all parameters. In fact I made the same choice that day flying into Basel LFSB, using ILS 16 instead of circling 26 for this reason, and the fact that 26 only provides 1600m LDA, with a wind of 250 25G38.
You also have to look at the airport layout of EDDH. There is forest to the north of 23, with 33 intersecting the touchdownzone of 23. There is a gap in the forest, of course, for the RWY extending NNWwards. On the picture of the scrape happening you can actually read the sign for RWY33. I believe, that the wind gut funneld down RWY33 and hit the plane right at the intersection...
Case of bad luck, in my opinion...