I believe CX pilots need to carefully consider the following probable eventualities:
1. Workforce. In the next 6 mths there will be a further significant exodus of the already depleted KA pilot group, meaning someone has to pick up the slack to service the world's 2nd biggest aviation market. KA certainly needs some relief in order to run this Bangalore rte starting in May. Management may be depending on getting a bunch of Man freighter guys onto the Airbus fleet, however trng is an extra burden on resources and word is these guys will simply take the endorsement and run - a net penalty in productivity. They can't simply recruit their way out of this problem as the flow of pilots out of HKG will definitely outweigh the available suitable candidates.
2. Rate of effort. CX/KA management can no longer take the easy option and simply cancel flts to meet manpower constraints, as there is soon to be competition from HK Airlines/HK Express on the lucrative trunk rtes. Loss of market share will be hard to win back. Rostering will slowly become uniform between to the 2 carriers as the extra flex in CX is used up to fill the manpower void. ie At least all HKG based CX pilots will be working as hard as a KA pilot. (welcome to 9 'G' days/mth, min rest in HKG etc)
3. Pay. Damage control re the above will result in KA pilots being offered even greater pay incentives to stay. This will only retain a few fence-sitters, many will still leave as the bucket of s*#t is well and truly full. Any cost neutral future promises (integration with CX, basing options etc), are all known to be quite empty due to RA65 and therefore ineffective. The irony is that KA pilots will soon likely be paid more than pilots of the parent co. Remember KA no.s are already critical and the OT threshold is lower than CX (ie 75hrs).
Sorry to be the harbinger of bad news, but can't anyone else see this? (lowkoon excepted). Life at KA can't really get any worse, but there is certainly some distance to fall for CX pilots.
The only solution is to combine forces and ensure everyone is at least on the same wicket and receiving equal and best possible remuneration and opportunities in the future. I'm not pointing this out due to a sense of altruism, but merely practicality. Sometime down the track, management will seek to win back the ground they lost through rapacious divide and conquer tactics, which will adversely affect all of us .
The msge is, support the DPAs case now re the manchester freighter guys and in turn the DPA will support you against the inevitable shafting heading your way.