Tubby One, you hit the nail on the head
, according to most serious economists the current situation is a temporary dip! Yes, the US is probably headed for a small "r", but a new president there and strong growth in the rest of the world will cushion the blow -- I doubt it'll be felt much in Oz in the medium term as the local economy and that of our neighbours shows no signs of letting up, and the fundamentals like supply of raw materials and demand from Asia are very strong also..
Quick tangential rant: The whole
housing topic can and should be ignored from an individual's point of view as it's just bank-induced stupidity to buy into such a ridiculous market
Rent, invest the money you would have spent on a mortgage, double your money every ten years (conservatively speaking), be more flexible and look back with a smile rather than just trading up every few years and ending up with an overpriced piece of junk in 30 years time
, having spent most of your disposable income in the process to line some banker's pocket.. look around the world, it seems to be the Anglosaxons and their societal heirs who're as silly and emotional when it comes to home ownership
!
Rant over!
As per
pilot numbers, there's enough evidence around
in aeroplane sales figures, current pilot age/retirement projections, passenger growth all around the world, and the like, to strongly suggest that what we're seeing at the moment is only the beginning of a pretty fundamental
shake-up in the Oz aviation industry
. Most things flying Down Under have been a bit special in the past for a variety of reasons, but global demand, cheaper/easier FIFO deals and a more flexible global workforce are now starting to make a real difference!
As per the
effects on GA, yes, local prices/T's&C's etc. will need to go up, but that will in turn attract pilots who not necessarily want to fly long haul or large jets (I bet they're enough of us out there) and the game will no doubt go on. I'd be willing to bet on that, actually
Remember, the basic laws of supply and demand never change, and demand in aviation services will not just suddenly vanish as prices go up (it's called elasticity of demand, and it's very real also), so there'll still be money to be made to savy entrepeneurs
And there's another notable thing going on: With a lot of the global growth in aviation happening in the relative neighbourhood, Australia's reputation for
good quality training, high standards of theory testing (yes the CASA phenomenon has its good side, would you believe it
), and the abundance of space and good weather, the government's pledge to develop the "world's leading aviation training industry" doesn't sound far-fetched at all. Again I would be inclined to bet that in ten years' time we will see literally dozens of new small and large players out there, making a handsome return with cadets from all over Asia, India, the Middle East, you name it.
In summary, yes, things are going to change, there will be casualties along the line, but I get the distinct impression that we're headed for a much stronger and larger and
more profitable aviation industry in this country.
..now ducking for cover from the assorted mudslinging nay-sayers, pessimists, and past-glorifying dinosaurs
