Everyone sees it coming, don't be fooled. It will be around mid 2009. As i have stated before, it's then when we will start paying to stay, so much will our renumeration have eroded. Allthough most of us have reasons to stay even through sh#t times, school, bonds etc. and allthough pilots eat a lot of sh#t just to fly the big one or get the fourth one, they are not fools. The moment it COSTS, thats when they leave. I've seen this before. Weaving that carrot in front of our noses works for a limited time. EK has run out of that option. No one believes even the "Dear Pilots" on their header no longer. Not even new joiners, they just underestimate what Dubai takes out of them. But the realisation period has shortened considerably. For us it took almost 3 years. The new ones take less than 3 months. I guess some will still stay, as at home it's still worse. But it will be tight by then.
I predict that another outfit will be prepared to offer some sort of offshore working conditions (commuting roster, faked basing or other) and will get the lot joining. Until they managed to screw them again.