My information is also second hand, but a reliable source told me a version that sadly falls back on pilot error:
When the pilot in command requested taxi, he was told RWY09 was availiable. As the wind was slightly easterly, he requested the runmay length from the ATC who said it was 1500m. So the aircraft taxied and backtracked. Just before backtracking was completed, the ATC corrected himself and told the pilot, that he was mistaken and that the length was only 1000m. The temperature was in the high thirties and with the amount loaded, alarm bells should have already been ringing.
The pilot decided to give it a shot (such a long way to taxi back to 01...). The 210 probably took of due to ground effect and thereafter climb performance just su
ed. He did not have a choice - under thease conditions the aircraft just did not fly to outclimb the terrain-no room for a forced landing-no training in the world would have changed this.
Do not get me wrong - I do feel extremely sorry for the pilot and the victims.
However I think it is also wrong to throw the namibian aviation industry as a whole into question in this case (if my information is correct on what really happend). I think that 99.9% of us pilots here do have a very good conception of what density altitude means and how to make the performance calculation - not just for a flight with a lot of payload, but for every flight.
Surrounded by mountains, Eros does have downdraughts in these areas. Even RWY19 is a risk when there is a slight southerly breeze and should only be used with a wind stronger than 12 knots. If in doubt use 01! Maybe, being based at Swakop with sea level performance, the pilot did not add these factors into his calculation. Of course it also depends on the aircrafts performance, but a 210 will surely struggle extreamly.
It was not wrong of the ATC to mention 09 availiable and it is always the pilots discreation which runway to use. Yes - giving out the wrong length of runway at an airfield which you control is an unforgivable error, an embaressment not to mention - but he saved himself by correcting his guess before clearing the aircraft for TKOF. Why did the pilot commence his takeoff? Where was his situational awareness?
The way the aircraft crashed, this chain of events seems likely. If anyone has more infos or a different report, please feel free to comment. So in my view it was solely a chain of human error starting with the ATC.
This conclusion relieves me partially because I have to climb into a 210 almost every day myself-bad maintanance is a thing we pilots have little control over but deciding to commence TKOF in any situation, is purely our responsibility.This is also the reason the law gives the pilot in command the right to reject any instructions given by anybody. The way the press handles these matters is appalling and damaging but I hope this teaches us all to question ourselves and our decisions, always.
Condolances to the families and loved-ones - you suffer most and your loss has struck us all.