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Old 12th Jan 2008, 20:06
  #51 (permalink)  
Cyclic Hotline
 
Join Date: Oct 1999
Location: Beyond the black stump!
Posts: 1,419
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I seem to have missed quite a debate while I've been gone.
Now there are a few of the preliminary facts published, at least some idea of what occurred in both instances.

If both accidents continue to be self-explanatory, in hindsight you might confirm your suspicions. But what about every other accident that occurs? Are you suggesting that all accidents follow the same precise formula of cause and outcome? If life were this simple, then we would be able to predict with precise accuracy the nature of every accident, and the specific means of eliminating all risk and accidents.

Unfortunately, accidents and their causes don't follow a formulaic process, which leaves the process of reduction or prevention of accidents with as many solutions as their root causes.

If it were this simple, then all accidents in any specific circumstance would be identical, predictable, and by nature, completely avoidable. I don't see that predictable repetition in any accident study.

A quick browse through any accident database will reveal a myriad of similar accidents with equally random causes. There are certainly some specific traits and those are indeed the ones to address first. But to proclaim that any accident is predictable and self-explanatory is as disengenious as anyone who proclaims they can eliminate all accidents.

Speculate all you want. I don't "stomp my feet" over that part. I do take exception to making assumptive conclusions based on zero knowledge of the occurrence and circumstances.

PS. I am not involved in either of the companies affected.
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