Mainly -200's in the EU. All -400's are in USA. Slim chance.
Not true. The 200s are based in Fra and Man, the european 400s are based in Paris and London. As the 200 gets phased out all european freighter bases will go to the 400.
At the moment you probably have a fifty/fifty chance of being offered the 400. You can express a preference when they inform you that your application was successful. If they can they will accomodate you, if they have an earlier start date for the other aircraft type they will probably offer it anyway, it's up to you to pass or accept. It would probably be frowned upon if you declined more than once or twice unless you could offer a better reason than type preference...
Best of luck