Very interesting post from Colin, xrayalpha. Certainly if being an FI is increasingly being seen as a non-starter for aspiring airline pilots the instructor shortage will continue to increase. Being an increasingly rare commodity should lead to better pay and conditions for FI's generally, but of course schools will have to pass on the extra cost to students.
I suspect that Colin is right in so far as the migration from group A to microlight training will continue and the trend certainly seems to be more advanced than I had thought, given his statistics. What would be interesting however, would be to see how many group A schools follow the market and migrate to microlight instruction.
The reason for this migration is clear - cost. A case in point would be the 2 schools at Sywell, where each operates a version of the Eurostar - the microlight school charges £98/hr dual, whereas the group A school charges £127/hr. OK, the group A version has a more powerful engine and a very nice paint job, but these are as near to being the same aircraft as you can get.
So the effect of this process will probably be an improvement in pay for Group A instructors, followed by a drop in demand and an acceleration towards modern microlight training becoming the natural starting point for leisure flyers.
Which will, perhaps, lead us on to a discussion of whether there is a microlight instructor shortage in a few years time!
David