inveritas I don't think there is as much difference between your assessment and that of in my last airline as you seem to think. You are both making an assessment of much the same info. It is a bit much to turn this into an accusation of his "making things up". He just gives us more of his reasoning than you do.
Neither of you, nor I, know what the future brings but we do know that loads are down, aircraft are arriving as if on a conveyor belt, second hand aircraft from FR are hard to sell and each new route tends to be more marginal than the last. It's easy to solve the latter problem (low cost = low salary, so you take more from the employees), but the other issues are more enduring.
Is it possible that we will see less pilots in FR next year, not to mention a further re-structuring of pilot employment and much reduced pay overall? Actually it is. There could be more pilots, routes and aircraft too. Only one thing is certain - average pilot pay will continue to decrease. One day it will be low enough that even the dumbest FR pilot will notice.