DB
I'm in a similar position to yourself, albeit I have already started down the path; I need about 400ish multi hours to unfreeze my ATPL. I have been pondering the same questions and have the following to add, based upon conversations with other crews and my gut feeling:
1. I agree there will become a point when early upgrades will start to dry up. However, given the current plans for growth, I think you should be ok.
2. Regarding turn-over, the impact of the new contract on pilot retention is still not totally clear. I'll refrain from commenting further as I am not really qualified and don't want to start the usual debate. All should become clear in the next few months I guess.
3. I think about 12 months is a good bet for yourself, but build in 3-4 mths from Indoc to completing line training depending which fleet you are on. You may be lucky but don't assume there will be a trg captain instantly available.
4. Take all above with a health warning given I am still wearing rose tinted specs. I'd be very surprised if it happened given your experience, but, it would put a dent in your timeline if you were allocated to the large fleet with associated seat bar.
Feel free to PM me if you have any other questions.
Regards
PS. You must be relaxing already; it took 2 posts to tell us you're a Harrier mate
