As I said in another thread, lets define pilot shortage: It all depends on the side of the employment fence one stands.
On the pilot side, a shortage is when pilots have no problem finding jobs, choosing their employer or place to work or can change employer at wish. An exceedence of pilots exists when the pilot cannot manage to get hired, or is stuck with the job with which he is unhappy.
Pilot shortage for employers, is when their ordered equipment gets delivered faster than they can train pilots.