If we keep the same growth rate we have had for the last 5 years, you would get your command around 2020-2022 and we will have around 258 a/c.
Isn't 258 aircrafts by 2020 a bit optimistic? If CX keeps ordering new aircrafts it may happen, but there hasn't been any talks of a new order. In about 2-3 years most or all of the new aircrafts will have arrived and the expansion could very well slow down. Combined that with a lot less retirements (or almost none at all) due to the imposed RA65 and estimating the time to a command at 13-14 years becomes unrealistic. If there's no more planes coming and very little retirements in 2-3 years, there won't be much upgrades either. Time to command at 15+ years is likely. And we're not even talking about the situation on bases....