new crew
1) not at the moment but once current SOs have been upgraded or been assessed as not upgradeable, then DEFOs will be hired in HKG. Best guess would be at least 3 years so say 2011 onwards. It would be on full expatriate terms. Until 1997 CX used to recruit SOs and FOs into HKG so it will go back to being, experienced guys join as DEFOs and less experienced guys join as SOs, but your seniority is still DoJ!
2) how long is a piece of string? We had 102 aircraft end of 2006 and we will have 120 at end of 2008. Beyond that we have 17 a/c ordered and are returning 13, so 4 more confirmed. If we keep the same growth rate we have had for the last 5 years, you would get your command around 2020-2022 and we will have around 258 a/c. This depends on how many work till 65. Survey data from BALPA (they recently introduced RA65) indicates working until 62-63 as an average. If that average age is realised, time to command will be a year quicker, so use 13 years as a minimum.
As far as the disparity between freigther and pax command is concerned, that differential will disappear. It has been false economy paying freighter pay for commands for 3 reasons.
- more junior FOs take the slots leaving more senior, higher earning FOs as FOs
- freighter captains earn more money over a career as they are always 3-4 increments ahead of their pax peers when their peers finally become captains
- there is a huge training burden in transferring pilots across fleets when their freighter commitment is completed.
The continual shortfall of freighter captains is testament to systemic mispricing resulting in manning issues. It is only a matter of time before the bean counters work out that it makes more sense to have the same salary for both commands. When that happens, time to command will be the same for both fleets.
The growth rate in the 90s was anemic compared to recent times. The prediction of 14(or 13) years depends on no major economic setbacks such as the asian contagion or 9-11.
Last edited by Numero Crunchero; 27th Oct 2007 at 14:02.